Fermi/Channel Markers (1): Shiny New Cars...

I'm out of observations tonight.

No. That's not right. I have a couple, let's see if I can put them together coherently.

All right, so we're fans of the show Wheeler Dealers (on Velocity in the U.S., but it was originally a U.K. show, but I'm afraid I don't know offhand which of the UK channels was their original home). This past year, they had a change in the mechanic hosts, with Ant Anstead taking the slot over from the departing Edd Chyna.

We've seen a few of Ant's episodes, but what we had not yet caught was his prior show, For the Love of Cars. We happened on an episode last night by accident, it happened to be their VW Microbus episode. It's fun, if you have any love in your heart for air cooled engines it's worth catching.

So we're watching the discussion of when the Microbus was first introduced, and Ant's partner on the show mentioned that the original sticker price for the Microbus back in the mid 1950's was a hair over 2000 dollars.

And I started thinking about what I call Fermi/Channel Markers.

Or, those little tricks that engineers and scientists pick up for estimating. The most famous examples in the outer world of these sorts of things are known as Fermi problems, after Enrico Fermi, who was well known for having a knack for this sort of thing.

Things like, a cubic meter is 1000 liters is just over 260 gallons. An Olympic class swimming pool is just less than 3000000 (3 million) liters (2500000 precisely), just over 600000 gallons (the factor here is 3.8 liters per (U.S.) gallon). Big mixing tanks in industrial plants are often of the order of 750000-800000 gallons or just a hair more than an Olympic swimming pool's worth of liquid, or about 3000 cubic meters (1 pool +).

But what does that have to with the VW Microbus?

Well, the statutory price of an ounce of gold (post-Roosevelt/WWII) in the 1950's was 35 dollars per ounce. And the spot price of gold in yesterday's market is about 1300 dollars per ounce. Consequently, in today's dollars, the sticker price of a first generation VW Microbus when it rolled off the line in New York harbor was about 2000 times 1300 divided by 35 (i.e. 2000 times approximately 37) equals about 74000 dollars.

In other words, for a writer, whether fiction or non-fiction, this is a significant thing: the VW Microbus in the United States was a high-end luxury purchase if bought new.

Can we verify this? Well yes, actually. Here's how. The original Corvette, introduced in 1953, was contemporary to the 'bus, and it's sticker price was approximately 3500 dollars. And the 'vette was considered a playboy's toy.

And what's that in new money? 3500 times 1300 divided by 35 is about 130000 dollars. Which is a pretty good price for a new 'vette these days. Google tells me the base model starts at 56000 dollars. Which means that, even after inflation, etc. this year's Corvette is priced, in equivalent terms, almost exactly half of the price of its progenitor. (The next year, it was reduced to about 2700 dollars, which is a lot closer to the 'bus)

Now, look again at that original price in today's money for the Microbus, 74000. That's Mercedes, BMW, Jaguar money. But the VW Tiguan starts at 25000. Makes me wonder where the next gen 'bus, the all-electric coming in 2022, is going to be priced at. 40000, say? Maybe 35000? Certainly not that 74000 level.

Writers, this is why I call it a Fermi/Channel Marker: it helps me, and I hope you, see what sorts of things to look for in different eras. For sci-fi, it might even help for thinking about what might happen going forward. If your villain jumps into his split-window Stingray, chrome shining, pops the clutch and roars down the street... well, maybe he's slumming it in the warehouse district?

What about the surfer girl in her father's brand new Microbus going down to the Beach Blanket Bingo? Maybe she's not going to have to worry too much about how here parents are going to pay for Vassar in the fall. Or maybe she really is terrified, if dad extended himself just a little too far to get the exotic new German toy...